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Demand-driven, tight supply pushes prices higher: Nitrogen fertilizer companies are focusing on winning the tough battle to stabilize spring plowing and ensure supply.
This is the information conveyed at the 2021 Spring Nitrogen Fertilizer Market Outlook Conference, held in Tai'an, Shandong on March 17-18. 


Gu Zongqin
Gu Zongqin, Chairman of the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association We conducted a comprehensive analysis of the nitrogen fertilizer market since last year and highlighted this year’s key priorities for the nitrogen fertilizer sector. He said, “Insufficient natural gas supply, the phasing out of outdated urea production capacity, environmental restrictions on production, and robust export demand have been the direct drivers behind this round of urea price increases.” He focused particularly on analyzing the international nitrogen fertilizer market: First, the global economic outlook is likely to remain positive, with growth rates 2% to 3% higher than in normal years. Affected by the pandemic, global food prices have remained persistently high, prompting countries around the world to expand their crop planting areas, thereby fueling strong demand in the international nitrogen fertilizer market. For instance, the United States has added 1.062 million hectares of corn planting area, representing a 4.3% increase over the previous year. Second, due to the closure of domestic nitrogen fertilizer plants in Brazil and the expansion of planting areas for crops such as corn, urea imports from 2020 to 2021 are expected to rise by 1.5 million tons. Egypt has raised its nitrogen fertilizer export tariff by approximately $40 per ton, while Vietnam has eliminated taxes and fees on the import of fertilizers. Third, since the second half of 2020, India’s successive tender announcements have served as a direct catalyst for rising market prices. On March 13, India announced another round of urea tenders totaling 1.5 million tons, with the target explicitly aimed at the Chinese market. Fourth, nitrogen fertilizer production capacity and output for the first half of this year are expected to see a slight increase, adding 400,000 tons of supply compared to the same period last year. Taking into account both domestic and international markets, the release of new production capacity falls far short of the demand from agricultural use, non-agricultural applications, and exports.
Stabilize spring plowing and ensure supply. , nitrogen Large enterprises must fight and win this tough battle. 。” Regarding the key priorities for China’s nitrogen fertilizer market in 2021, Chairman Gu. Emphasis was placed on ensuring the stable supply of nitrogen fertilizers for spring plowing and maintaining price stability in the market. The nitrogen fertilizer industry was urged to intensify efforts to combat counterfeit agricultural inputs, purify the market, and strive to improve the utilization rate of nitrogen fertilizers. It was also encouraged to actively explore and adopt futures tools to manage operational risks, thereby making greater contributions to securing domestic nitrogen fertilizer supplies and ensuring bumper harvests of grain.

Tian Youguo
Tian Youguo, Director of the Fertilizer Quality Monitoring Division, National Agricultural Technology Extension Service Center, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Indicates, This year, the “four guarantees and one strive” initiative will directly boost agricultural demand for nitrogen fertilizers. First, ensure that the area planted with grain remains stable at over 1.75 billion mu. Second, ensure that the corn planting area in the Northeast, Huanghuai-Hai, Northwest, and Southwest regions increases by more than 10 million mu. Third, ensure that grain production stays above 1.3 trillion jin. Fourth, ensure that the expanded planting area for double-cropping rice in southern China does not decrease; strive to restore wheat acreage in the Huanghuai-Hai and Northwest regions, increasing winter wheat acreage by 3 million mu; and endeavor to keep soybean planting area stable at over 140 million mu. “The increase in corn planting area will inevitably boost demand for nitrogen fertilizer; we forecast that nitrogen fertilizer demand during spring plowing will rise by ten percentage points.”
Gao Li
Gao Li, Deputy Secretary-General of the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association A comprehensive analysis was conducted on the production capacity, output, and operating rates of synthetic ammonia, urea, and nitrogen fertilizers, along with a forecast for this year’s market. He noted that demand for nitrogen fertilizers in the non-agricultural sector is also gradually recovering and showing strong growth. Estimated demand for pure nitrogen is around 10.3 million tons, of which urea demand is projected to be 18 million tons. Physical object ), an increase compared to the previous year.
Ju Hao, Senior Analyst at CRU Consulting Company An analysis of global new urea production capacity and output reveals that overseas prices are higher than domestic prices. China’s substantial increase in exports has driven up domestic urea prices and, in turn, helped sustain high global urea prices.
Zhao Bingqiang
Zhao Bingqiang, Researcher at the Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences It is believed that developing new, high-efficiency nitrogen fertilizers has become the new normal for the 14th Five-Year Plan period. Over the next 5 to 10 years, The annual production of value-added fertilizers, led by new types of nitrogen fertilizers, will reach 35 million tons. This accounts for more than 50% of the direct application of urea, ammonium phosphate, and compound fertilizers to farmland, covering 1 billion mu of land and resulting in an increase in crop yields of 20 billion kilograms.
Yu Changzhi
Yu Changzhi, Technical Expert at Qinhuangdao Wuxian Wei'ai Technology Development Co., Ltd. He delivered a special report titled “Current Status of Value-Added Urea Promotion and Value-Added Technology 2.0.” Yu Changzhi stated that developing and producing value-added fertilizers—using value-added technology—that are suitable for various soil types and crops represents a strategic pathway for China’s fertilizer industry to achieve green development.
Meng Guangjin
“Our company has built world-class coal gasification facilities as well as fertilizer and pharmaceutical production units. Among these, our new products—including novel urea and compound fertilizers—have been highly favored by a wide range of customers.” Co-organizer of the conference Meng Guangjin, Chairman of Rising Group Co., Ltd. It introduced their explorations in the R&D of new types of urea and compound fertilizers, marketing innovations, and efforts to “optimize, refine, and strengthen” existing industries through a variety of measures.
Expert Exchange
Li Kai, Shandong Alliance Chemical Group When analyzing supply in the East China region, the minister stated that urea exports in the first half of the year will increase by approximately 1 million tons year-on-year. Limited seasonal domestic demand and modest social inventory levels will help keep nitrogen fertilizers in a tight balance and at relatively high price levels. Liu Bo, Deputy General Manager of Heilongjiang Beifeng Agricultural Materials It is estimated that the increase in corn and soybean planting areas in Northeast China will lead to a 100,000-ton rise in agricultural urea demand. Based on feedback from North China, Central China, South China, Southwest China, and Northwest China, the spring nitrogen fertilizer market as a whole is experiencing tight supply. Representatives from companies such as Sinochem Fertilizer, Sinofert Group, and Anhui Huilong participated in a special discussion focused on ensuring supply stability. Everyone believes that the record-high urea prices have pushed compound fertilizer producers into a state of loss. The inability to withstand the pressure, sluggish sales, and refusal to accept new orders are now becoming insurmountable hurdles for compound fertilizer companies. Creating a healthy, stable, and orderly competitive environment may well be the key to high-quality development of China’s nitrogen fertilizer market. Only by joining forces and supporting each other can nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium truly boost market confidence in the fertilizer industry.
The conference was hosted by the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association and co-organized by the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, Ruixing Group, Qinhuangdao Wuxian Weiai Technology, and Shandong Pengbo Bio. The meeting was chaired by Wang Liqing, Secretary-General of the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association. Zhang Jincheng, President of the Shandong Province Fertilizer and Coal Chemical Industry Association and Chairman of Luxi Chemical Group, delivered a speech at the conference. Over 350 representatives from nitrogen fertilizer production, fertilizer trading, and futures companies attended the event.