On July 15, the State Council Information Office held a press conference. Sheng Laiyun, Deputy Director of the National Bureau of Statistics, was invited to brief the media on the country’s economic performance in the first half of 2025 and answer questions from reporters.

— What’s the outlook for the second half of the year? Are there any other supportive measures planned?

National Bureau of Statistics: Recently, relevant authorities have accelerated the rollout of policies for the second half of the year. Authorities also indicated that they are strengthening their policy reserves and will introduce measures in a timely manner in response to market changes.

Looking at the situation in the second half of the year, although the external environment still faces considerable uncertainties and there is significant pressure from internal structural adjustments, our comprehensive assessment indicates that China’s economy has solid support for maintaining stable growth in the second half.

First, the steady and progressive development trend and achievements of the economy in the first half of the year have laid a solid foundation for achieving the annual targets. In the first half of the year, China’s economy withstood various pressures and maintained stable growth, sustaining a development trajectory characterized by stability with progress and steady improvement. This fully demonstrates the resilience and strong adaptability of China’s economy, and this development trend is set to continue. GDP growth in the first half of the year has already reached 5.3%, providing a robust foundation for meeting the projected targets.

Second, over the years, the overarching trend and practical efforts toward high-quality development have fostered consensus, accumulated new growth drivers, promoted economic rebalancing, and enhanced the economy’s capacity for sustainable development. Looking at some real-world factors, several leading indicators and positive elements are improving, reflecting the strong momentum of high-quality development. From a production perspective, after years of transformation, the service sector’s contribution to economic growth has been steadily increasing. Among the three major sectors, the value-added of the service sector accounted for 59.1% of GDP in the first half of the year, contributing more than 60% to GDP growth. Judging from the leading indicators of recent months, the services sector business sentiment index has consistently remained in the expansion range above 50%, signaling robust growth momentum in the service sector and indicating that the sector—playing a significant role in economic growth—will continue to maintain strong development momentum. From a demand perspective, consumption serves as the “ballast” and primary driving force behind economic growth. As I just mentioned, the consumer market showed signs of revitalization in the first half of the year, and under the impetus of favorable consumption policies in the second half, it will continue to maintain a healthy growth trajectory, further highlighting its role as a stabilizing force for economic growth. In terms of exports, we have pursued diversified opening-up and built a diversified trade landscape, reducing our trade dependence on any single country to single-digit levels. In the first half of the year, China’s imports and exports grew by 2.9%, a remarkable achievement given the substantial external shocks faced in the second quarter, demonstrating the resilience of our trade sector. From the perspective of new growth drivers, these new drivers continue to expand, with new industries, new business models, and new formats maintaining relatively rapid growth rates. Based on these factors, a comprehensive assessment suggests that China’s economy is well-positioned for stable growth and high-quality development in the second half of the year.

Third, coordinated macroeconomic policies will provide strong support for the stable operation of the economy. Since the beginning of this year, China has implemented more proactive and effective macroeconomic policies, playing a crucial role in providing a safety net. In line with central directives, relevant authorities have recently accelerated the introduction of policies for the second half of the year, which will continue to serve as a key pillar for maintaining economic stability. At the same time, authorities have also indicated that China’s policy “toolbox” is rich and diverse, and they are strengthening their policy reserves, ready to roll out appropriate measures in response to market developments.

Based on these supporting factors, we believe that China’s economy will continue to maintain a steady yet progressive development trend in the second half of the year—a trend that also explains why numerous international institutions and investment banks hold an optimistic outlook for China’s economy.

— Will consumption slow down in the second half of the year?

National Bureau of Statistics: Consumption policies will continue to be strengthened in the second half of the year, and we are optimistic about consumption in the second half.

Before looking ahead to the consumption outlook for the second half of the year, let me first give you an overview of China’s consumer market performance in the first half. This will help you better understand the characteristics and supporting factors of China’s consumer market, as well as provide a more intuitive grasp of the trends expected in the second half.

This year, the consumer market has delivered impressive performance. Among the many indicators just released, the quarter-on-quarter growth in retail sales has been a particularly noteworthy highlight. In the first half of the year, total retail sales of consumer goods saw accelerating year-on-year growth, and market activity continued to pick up, providing strong support for GDP growth in the first half. In the first half of the year, total retail sales of consumer goods reached 24.55 trillion yuan, representing a 5% increase over the same period last year. Specifically, second-quarter growth came in at 5.4%, an acceleration of 0.8 percentage points from the first quarter—a steady upward trend quarter by quarter. As a result, as just reported, consumption contributed 52% to economic growth in the first half, making consumption a major bright spot in the first half of the year.

The first half of the year saw several consumption trends that deserve attention: First, service consumption accelerated. In the first half of the year, retail sales of services rose by 5.3% year-on-year, while retail sales of goods grew by 5.1%. As a result, the share of service consumption in the overall consumption structure has been increasing. Second, the role of holiday consumption in driving growth has become stronger. During the first half of the year, consumers clearly felt the boost from the Spring Festival, May Day, and Dragon Boat Festival—travel volumes reached new highs. Moreover, spending on related cultural, sports, leisure, and transportation services all maintained double-digit growth. Third, growth in certain upgrade-oriented consumption categories has picked up pace. In the first half of the year, retail sales of sporting goods surged by 22.2% year-on-year, and retail sales of gold, silver, and jewelry increased by 11.3%. Fourth, green consumption is gradually becoming a new trend. In the first half of the year, demand for new-energy vehicles, energy-efficient home appliances, and smart home appliances continued to grow rapidly. Fifth, “Traveling in China” and “Shopping in China” remain increasingly popular—especially after the expansion of the visa-free “circle of friends.” More tourists are visiting China, which in turn has boosted domestic consumption. During the May Day and Dragon Boat Festival holidays, the number of foreign visitors entering China under the visa-free policy rose by 72.7% and 59.4%, respectively, compared to the same period last year. Sixth, new consumption models and business formats continue to emerge one after another.

Therefore, based on these characteristics, we can see that China’s consumer market in the first half of the year has become increasingly active under the impetus of a series of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption, and its development trend is positive. This means that consumption will continue to be supported in the second half of the year. The factors influencing consumption in the first half—and the overall consumption trends—will likely persist into the second half. Moreover, consumption policies will continue to be strengthened. Just now, some of you expressed concerns about certain issues related to consumption subsidy policies; relevant authorities have already announced that stimulus measures for consumption subsidies are being rolled out one after another in the second half of the year, and local governments will also continue introducing complementary measures to further promote consumption. We are now at a critical stage of upgrading our consumption structure. Per capita GDP has remained stable above US$13,000 for two consecutive years. This stage represents a crucial period for consumption upgrading, with vast potential in cultural tourism, medical care, health services, and elderly care consumption. Our country has a population of over 1.4 billion, giving us a clear and significant advantage in terms of market size. Additionally, there is still a considerable gap between urban and rural areas, and our consumption levels—especially per capita levels—are still far behind those of some developed countries. This gap, however, represents substantial room for growth. China’s future consumption growth prospects are exceptionally promising, and the market space is enormous. Therefore, we remain highly optimistic about consumption in the second half of the year. Of course, we are fully aware that sustained and healthy consumption growth requires raising residents’ income levels and further improving the consumption environment. On these fronts, central government policies and measures introduced by relevant departments are steadily moving forward. Localities must also continue to implement effectively the central government’s requirements for expanding domestic demand, follow the deployment outlined in the Consumption Enhancement Action Plan, further “stabilize employment and boost incomes,” improve the consumption environment, increase the supply of high-quality goods and services, and promote the continued healthy development of the consumer market.

— What’s the price situation in the second half of the year?

National Bureau of Statistics: Overall, prices are expected to rebound moderately from their low levels in the second half of the year.

First, the trend in residents’ consumer prices—also known as the CPI—in June did indeed show positive changes, a result of multiple factors at play. In June, the CPI rose 0.1% year-on-year, marking the first rebound after several consecutive months of decline at -0.1%. Meanwhile, the core CPI rose 0.7% year-on-year, reaching a new high since last year. This indicates that, under the combined effect of measures aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting a reasonable recovery in prices, the price market has begun to show positive signs.

Second, the recent sustained low price levels exhibit both structural and cyclical characteristics. This feature was particularly evident in the first half of the year. In the first half, consumer prices fell, with food and energy prices having the most significant impact. Specifically, food prices declined by 0.9% year-on-year, while energy prices dropped by 3.2%. Together, these two factors pulled down the CPI by approximately 0.4 percentage points. Excluding food and energy prices, the core CPI rose by 0.4% year-on-year, and even accelerated to a 0.7% increase in June—clearly reflecting structural characteristics. At the same time, this trend also displays cyclical features. The current sustained low price levels are linked not only to changes in the domestic and global macroeconomic environment but also to China’s stage of development. China is at a critical juncture of transformation and upgrading, during which some traditional growth drivers are undergoing adjustment. As a result, prices of related products—such as steel, cement, and construction materials that are closely tied to the real estate sector—are continuously adjusting downward. Meanwhile, new growth drivers are emerging, and prices of high-tech products and high-tech manufacturing goods associated with these new drivers are trending upward. Since the growth of these new drivers has yet to fully offset the downward pressure from the adjustment of traditional drivers, overall prices continue to adjust—a process that is also necessary for the market clearance in certain industries. Moreover, this situation is further influenced by changes in the external environment at this stage, which have intensified downward pressure on prices.

Third, our overall assessment is that prices will experience a mild rebound from their low levels in the second half of the year. There are several supporting factors: First, the economy continues to maintain a stable and positive momentum, with total demand steadily expanding, laying a solid macroeconomic foundation for price stability. Second, relevant policies—especially those aimed at boosting domestic demand—are continuing to show effectiveness, which will stimulate related consumer demand and strongly support the steady recovery of consumer goods prices. Third, recent central meetings have called for the regulation of enterprises’ low-price, disorderly competition in accordance with laws and regulations, which will help standardize market order and improve the business environment. Recently, industry associations for photovoltaics, cement, and automobiles have each taken self-regulatory measures, which will have a positive impact on prices in these sectors. Fourth, the holiday effect remains evident, promoting stability or even an upward trend in prices for related services. The second half of the year includes a series of holidays such as summer vacation, National Day, and Mid-Autumn Festival; as I mentioned earlier, the holiday effect remains quite pronounced. Fifth, from a technical perspective, in both the CPI and PPI, the carryover effect will weaken in the second half of the year, gradually reducing its downward pull on both indices. From all these perspectives, we judge that prices will maintain a mild rebound from their low levels.