2025 On March 6, the “2025 National Spring Nitrogen Fertilizer Market Outlook Analysis Conference,” hosted by the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, was successfully held in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province. Gu Zongqin, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, was present at the conference. Zhang Jinqiao, Senior Vice Chairman of the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association and Deputy General Manager of Jineng Holding Equipment Manufacturing Group; Wang Zhihe, Vice Chairman of the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association and Chairman of Hebei Dongguang Chemical Co., Ltd.; Kong Xianglong, a Fourth-Level Researcher in the Service Industry Division of the Zhejiang Provincial Development and Reform Commission; Ye Weiyong, Chairman of Zhejiang Agricultural Group Co., Ltd. Xu Peng, Deputy General Manager of Linggu Chemical Group Co., Ltd., and other leaders, along with over 300 representatives from units including nitrogen fertilizer production and processing enterprises, trade and distribution companies, downstream users, futures firms, and news media, attended the meeting.

The meeting was chaired by Wang Liqing, Secretary-General of the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association.

Xu Peng, Deputy General Manager of Linggu Chemical Group Co., Ltd., and Ye Weiyong, Chairman of Zhejiang Nongsheng Group Co., Ltd., delivered speeches at the conference.

Gu Zongqin, Chairman of the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, delivered a keynote speech titled “Ensuring Quality and Quantity, Stabilizing Prices, and Doing Our Utmost to Secure Nitrogen Fertilizer Supplies for Spring Plowing.”

He first reviewed the production and market performance of the nitrogen fertilizer industry in 2024, which generally showed the following trends: increased production capacity and output, ample market supply, declining export volumes, falling coal prices, and a substantial drop in nitrogen fertilizer prices. According to preliminary statistics from the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, in 2024, the nation’s synthetic ammonia production reached 73.077 million tons, up 8.1% year-on-year; nitrogen fertilizer production totaled 49.258 million tons (in terms of pure substance), an increase of 8.8% over the previous year; urea production reached 67.237 million tons, up 6.9% year-on-year. The average ex-factory price of urea for the entire year was 2,066 yuan per ton, down 14.6% compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, the average delivered prices of anthracite and bituminous coal—raw materials used in nitrogen fertilizer production—fell by 19.4% and 6.8%, respectively, while the average delivered price of natural gas rose by 4.5% year-on-year. Overall, in 2024, domestic nitrogen fertilizer supply exceeded demand, leading to a significant decline in product prices and widening price gaps between domestic and international markets.

Regarding the forecast for the supply and demand situation of nitrogen fertilizers in 2025, Chairman Gu pointed out that global nitrogen fertilizer supply continues to grow, driven both by the commissioning of new traditional projects and by planned green ammonia projects with capacities exceeding 1 million tons per year. On the demand side, after two consecutive years of decline during the pandemic, demand has begun to rebound and pick up again; however, the expected growth rate of demand is anticipated to be lower than that of supply, making the supply-demand situation increasingly relaxed.

Regarding the key priorities for the nitrogen fertilizer market in 2025, Chairman Gu emphasized the following points: First, it is essential to ensure the completion of spring plowing and the annual nitrogen fertilizer production targets. Key nitrogen fertilizer enterprises should organize production in a scientific and efficient manner, guarantee the safe and stable operation of production facilities, properly stockpile raw materials, and arrange timely product shipments, making every effort to ensure supply stability. Second, we must increase the proportion of high-efficiency fertilizers and strengthen agrochemical services. All enterprises should actively develop value-added urea, slow- and controlled-release fertilizers, stabilized fertilizers, water-soluble fertilizers, and other high-efficiency products, continuously raising the share of such products. At the same time, we need to enhance agrochemical services by guiding farmers to apply high-efficiency fertilizers scientifically, helping them reduce costs and increase income. Third, we must ensure that nitrogen fertilizer prices during spring plowing and throughout the year remain within a reasonable range. Enterprises should consciously uphold market order, keep nitrogen fertilizer prices within a reasonable band with only minor fluctuations, establish appropriate price differentials between peak and off-peak seasons, strictly adhere to contractually agreed pricing, and firmly prohibit any practices—such as disguised price hikes or frequent price adjustments—that disrupt the market. Fourth, we should seek exports appropriately and in moderation, taking into account domestic demand patterns and seasonal variations, and striving to export at the right time and in the right quantities while meeting domestic needs.

Gao Xiangzhao, chief expert at the National Agricultural Technology Extension Service Center, analyzed China’s agricultural production outlook and fertilizer demand for 2025. The director of the Fertilizer and Soil Management Division of the Zhejiang Provincial Department of Agriculture provided an interpretation of Zhejiang Province’s progress in controlling fertilizer use while enhancing efficiency, as well as related policies. Wu Lianghuan, a professor at Zhejiang University, introduced research and applications on efficient nitrogen fertilizer application techniques for rice cultivation.

In the afternoon, the conference invited Zhao Chengyun, Vice President of Xinyangfeng Agricultural Science and Technology Co., Ltd., to present on the changes in China’s compound fertilizer product structure in 2024 and the supply-and-demand outlook for 2025. Yu Changzhi, Deputy General Manager of Qinhuangdao Wuxian Wei’ai Technology Development Co., Ltd., shared the current status and promotion experiences of the industrialization of value-added fertilizers. Lin Meigen, Vice President of Dabeinong Group, delivered a presentation titled “Bio-stimulants+: Synthetic Biology Empowers Nitrogen Fertilizer Efficiency Enhancement and Cost Reduction.” Zhu Xiaomin, General Manager of Amiba Nanjing Biotechnology Co., Ltd., introduced the latest progress in the development of a new type of stable urea.

The conference hosted a special forum on urea futures. First, Liu Shuyuan from CITIC Construction Investment Futures Co., Ltd. analyzed the new landscape of the urea futures market and industrial risk management. Afterwards, Zhang Zucai, Deputy General Manager of Chengdu Yuntu Holdings Co., Ltd.; Hu Rencai, Deputy General Manager of the Nitrogen Fertilizer Division of Sichuan Agricultural Materials & Fertilizers Co., Ltd.; Li Xiang from China National Agricultural Development Group Holding Co., Ltd.; and Huang Hai, General Manager of Guangxi Huiduoli Agricultural Science & Technology Co., Ltd., were invited to share their companies’ experiences in participating in urea futures trading.

The conference invited Zhao Yu, General Manager of Jinkong Jinshi Chemical Group Co., Ltd., and Zhai Wugong, General Manager of Import and Export at Jiangsu Huachang Chemical Co., Ltd., to analyze separately the supply-and-demand outlook for coal in 2024 and the outlook for 2025, as well as the supply-and-demand situation for ammonium chloride in China in 2024 and the outlook for 2025. Han Yueming, Secretary-General of the Ammonium Sulfate Branch of the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, presented an overview of the supply-and-demand situation and outlook for ammonium sulfate in China in 2024.

3 On the morning of the 7th, Ju Hao, Chief Analyst at CRU (Beijing) Consulting Co., Ltd., presented an analysis of the global urea supply and demand situation and provided a market outlook. Wei Yong, Director of the Information and Market Department of the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, analyzed the economic performance of China’s nitrogen fertilizer production in 2024 and offered forecasts for 2025. Qin Liwen, Director of the Coal Chemical Products Sales Center at China Coal Sales & Transportation Co., Ltd.; Liu Bo, Nitrogen Fertilizer Product Line Manager at Heilongjiang Supply and Marketing Beifeng Agricultural Socialized Service Co., Ltd.; Miao Bo, Sales Manager at Anhui Haoyuan Chemical Group Co., Ltd.; Zhang Bingliang, Sales Company Manager at Hubei Saning Chemical Co., Ltd.; Chen Zhiliang, General Manager of the South China Branch at China National Chemical Corporation Sales (Hainan) Co., Ltd.; Lu Shenzhong, Head of the Marketing Department at Sichuan Lutianhua Co., Ltd.; and Zhang Wenwu, Urea Marketing Director at Henan Xinlianxin Chemical Industry Group Co., Ltd., each provided analyses of the nitrogen fertilizer market conditions in the North China, Northeast China, East China, Central China, South China, Southwest China, and Northwest China regions, respectively.

The meeting has now concluded successfully.