Wheat is one of the world’s two major staple foods. Most of it is used for food consumption to meet the global population’s dietary needs, while a small portion is used as... Energy feed and industrial processing raw materials Enter the feed and industrial sectors 。 But In different countries, the primary destinations for wheat consumption also vary—for example, France and Russia. ， The amount of wheat fed to livestock significantly exceeds the amount consumed for human consumption. ; and as for India and China However, consumption levels significantly exceed feed usage. To this end, this article explores the global demand pattern for wheat from three perspectives—food use, feed use, and industrial use—and from two angles—scale and structure. It should be noted that many of the data cited in this article are not official, authoritative figures released by government agencies; rather, they are mostly market estimates or relatively widely accepted data. Therefore, the data and viewpoints presented herein are intended for reference purposes only.

One, Global Wheat Consumption Scale and Regional Differences

The whole world 35% The above-mentioned population primarily consumes wheat as their staple food. With economic development and changing consumption patterns, global wheat consumption has generally been on the rise. However, there are significant regional differences: in major wheat-producing countries such as the U.S., Canada, and Australia, wheat is the staple food; in Southeast Asia and Japan and South Korea, rice is the staple food; while China and India both consume wheat and rice as staple foods.

(1) Global wheat consumption is steadily increasing.

Currently, there are no authoritative data available on global wheat consumption. The U.S. Department of Agriculture regularly publishes reports on global wheat. FSI Consumption volume, specifically including: Food (For consumption), Seed (For breeding) and Industrial (Industrial use) three components—given that the quantities used for seed and industrial purposes are relatively small, the proportion of consumption for food purposes is relatively high. FSI The trend of change can basically reflect the global trend in wheat consumption.

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture 2024 Year 11 The latest data released this month shows global wheat. FSI Consumption from 2014/15 Annual 5.7 From 100 million tons to 2023/24 Annual 6.4 100 million tons, with an increase as high as 12.3% , expected 2024/25 The annual figure continues to rise. 6.46 Hundreds of millions of tons. There are two main reasons: First, as the economy develops and people’s living standards improve, flour consumption in less developed regions has been steadily increasing—this trend is particularly pronounced in Africa. 2022 When wheat prices were high last year, Nigeria had asked flour mills to add [something] to bread production. 10% To 20% tapioca starch, yam, and cooking bananas ( plantain ) Food items such as sorghum, millet, sweet potatoes, and cassava are being widely used as substitutes for wheat flour; the Egyptian government had previously considered reducing the proportion of wheat flour extracted for bread subsidies from 82% Increase to 87.5% Even potatoes are being used in bread making. It is foreseeable that in the future, the consumption of flour in Africa will continue to have room for growth. 2014/15 Annual Africa FSI Consumption 6691.5 Ten thousand tons, 2023/24 Annual increase to 7982.8 Ten thousand tons, increase rate 19.3% , faster than the global growth rate for the same period 7 percentage points, projected 2024/25 The annual figure continues to rise. 8111.3 Ten thousand tons. Second, the westernization of consumption habits, urbanization, and an increasingly fast-paced lifestyle have led to increased consumption of flour-based products—such as bread, cakes, donuts, desserts, and instant noodles—in regions traditionally reliant on rice as a staple food. This trend is particularly pronounced in Southeast Asia, where Western-style breads and Italian pasta dishes have become especially popular. In Southeast Asia, rice has long been the traditional staple food; the region virtually does not produce wheat, and in most years, its wheat production remains at a very low level. 10 Around 10,000 tons—historically, they’ve also basically never eaten flour. 1960/61 Annual FSI Consumption only 91.4 Ten thousand tons, at the turn of the century. 2000/01 Annual increase to 862.9 Ten thousand tons, 2023/24 Annual increase to 1885 Ten thousand tons, compared to 2014/15 Annual 1454 A ten-thousand-ton increase 29.6% , with a growth rate faster than the global average for the same period. 17.3 percentage points, and also faster than the African region; it is expected to... 2024/25 The annual figure continues to rise. 1948 Ten thousand tons.

(2) Regional differences in global wheat consumption are significant.

Wheat consumption for food purposes is widespread across the globe; most countries worldwide consume some amount of wheat, to varying degrees. However, influenced by factors such as consumption habits, resource endowments, and income levels, per capita wheat consumption differs significantly across different regions and countries. Broadly speaking, these can be categorized into the following four major regional groups:

First, there are developed countries where wheat is the absolute staple food. Represented by the United States, Canada, Australia, and the European Union, these developed countries have flour as their absolute staple food. However, since these countries consume relatively large amounts of meat, eggs, and dairy products and have a more diversified diet, their overall consumption of staple foods—including flour—is relatively lower. Per capita annual flour consumption in these countries generally falls within the range of... 60 Around kilograms. However, in the two developed countries of Japan and South Korea, rice remains the staple food, with per capita annual wheat flour consumption standing at... 33 kilograms and 28 Around kilograms, per capita annual rice consumption has dropped to 50 kilograms and 56.4 Around a kilogram. And so on, as recognized by the United Nations. 37 Total population of developed countries 10.5 100 million people, according to 75% Estimated flour yield: Annual wheat consumption is roughly in the range of... 8000 Ten thousand tons. It should also be noted that Russia... 1.46 Hundreds of millions of people also primarily consume flour as their staple food, with per capita annual flour consumption roughly at... 70 Around kilograms, annual consumption in general 930 Ten thousand tons of flour.

Second, developing countries where rice and wheat are staple foods. These developing countries have lower levels of economic development, yet their per capita consumption of staple foods is relatively high. Take China, India, and Pakistan as examples: their respective per capita annual consumption of flour is— 43 kilograms, 45 kilograms, 93 kilograms, the per capita annual rice consumption is respectively in 78 kilograms, 82.5 kilograms and 19.4 kilograms—the total per capita annual food consumption is roughly in the range of 120 Around kilograms. Total population of the Three Kingdoms 30.4 Hundreds of millions of people consume wheat annually on average. 2 Around 100 million tons.

Third are developing countries where rice is the absolute staple food. As the middle class grows and consumption patterns become more Westernized, traditional rice-based developing countries are seeing a steady increase in wheat consumption, though the overall volume remains relatively small. For example, Indonesia has a population of... 2.78 Billion—per capita annual consumption of rice and flour respectively in 100 kilograms and 23 Around kilograms, roughly consumed annually 640 Ten thousand tons of flour.

Fourth are the regions of Africa and Latin America, where staple foods are relatively diverse. In both Africa and Latin America, staple foods are relatively diversified. In addition to traditional staples like rice and wheat flour, these two regions also consume large quantities of other crops such as corn and cassava. For example, South Africa and Mexico both consume significant amounts of white corn. Nigeria. 2.24 The annual per capita consumption of flour is only... 450 Around 10,000 tons, Brazil 2.16 The annual per capita consumption of flour is only... 950 Ten thousand tons.

II. Global Wheat Feed Usage and Regional Differences

To ensure the intrinsic quality of end-consumer flour products, governments and individual flour mills in various countries typically set specific quality standards for the procurement of wheat raw materials at the upstream stage. Wheat that fails to meet these standards is, in principle, not allowed into the food supply chain and instead is diverted to animal feed production. Consequently, international wheat trade is generally divided into two major categories: milling wheat and feed wheat. As a rule, feed wheat prices are lower than those of milling wheat. 5~20 U.S. dollar / Tons, with significant differences between years.

(1) The Issue of International Standards for Feed Wheat

Some countries around the world have clear standards for wheat used in animal feed, with France and Russia serving as prime examples. The Russian Grain Quality Assessment Center classifies Russian wheat into five grades, with grades one through four being milling wheat and grade five being feed wheat. From a protein perspective, the protein content (on a dry basis) of Russian durum wheat grades one through four is higher than... 13.5% 、 12.5% 、 11.5% and 10% . With 2023 For example, the year... Data from the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation show that, 2023 Russia's wheat production for the year was 9280 Ten thousand tons. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture is considering approximately... 5455 The inspection results for 10,000 tons of wheat show that the Grade-1 wheat is... 1.96 Ten thousand tons, accounting for the total inspection volume. 0.04% ; Second-grade wheat is 3.07 Ten thousand tons, accounting for 0.06% ; Grade 3 wheat is 1418.1 Ten thousand tons, accounting for 26%； The fourth-grade wheat has the largest quantity, which is... 2643.6 Ten thousand tons, accounting for 48.5% ； Five Level The quantity of wheat is 1358.9 Ten thousand tons, share: 24.9% Wheat that does not meet national quality standards 26.09 Ten thousand tons, share: 0.5% 。 Therefore, according to the feed wheat standards, 2023 Russian wheat annually The proportion meeting the milling standards reaches 74.6% Proportion of feed wheat 25.4% 。 French wheat is classified into four grades: premium, high-grade, medium-grade, and standard. Among these, premium and high-grade wheat are used for milling, while medium-grade and standard wheat are used for animal feed. According to this standard, the protein content (on a dry basis) of French milling wheat must exceed: 11% , bulk density exceeds 76 kilogram / Hundred liters, Landing value exceeds 240 Second 。2023 The proportions of the four grades of French wheat are as follows: 23%、37%、32% and 8% , with the first two tiers combined 60% Meet the milling standards, the rest 40% For feed wheat. From the perspective of international trade, Flour wheat buyers typically require a protein content of at least 11% , some requirements 11.5% Or above. For example Used in import regions such as Egypt and West Africa. 11.5% The standard for wheat protein content. From a dietary perspective, Usually As for that , wheat must contain at least 11% Only proteins with sufficient content can be used to make bread. Because the protein content is too low, the resulting bread lacks elasticity.

(2) Global wheat feed usage shows volatile growth.

Wheat can be classified according to standards into food-grade wheat and feed-grade wheat. However, in practice, some feed-grade wheat enters the food market through adulteration, while some food-grade wheat, benefiting from price advantages, also finds its way into the feed sector. According to data released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, since... 1960/61 Since the beginning of the year, global wheat feed usage has generally shown a volatile upward trend, starting from... 1960/61 Annual 2997.7 From ten thousand tons to 2023/24 Annual 1.59 Hundred million tons, increase rate 4.29 Twice as much, but with significant fluctuations from year to year. In terms of the proportion of feed usage relative to production volume, it generally stands at... 20% Overall, the situation remains relatively stable, with no obvious upward trend. This indicates that the global pattern of wheat consumption is characterized by "primarily for human consumption, with animal feed serving as a secondary use." In this context, animal feed plays mainly the role of a reservoir or regulator. The primary reason for this is that wheat consumption exhibits strong rigidity, whereas its use in animal feed demonstrates greater flexibility. This inherent characteristic also explains why the annual volume of wheat used for animal feed tends to fluctuate considerably. There are three main reasons for this:

1. Production fluctuations

According to 1960/61–2024/25 Annual data, global wheat FSI The standard deviation of consumption is the standard deviation of production. 79.1% The annual fluctuations in feed demand are generally smaller than those in production. Consequently, the positioning of feed-use regulators means that feed consumption is significantly influenced by fluctuations in production; the correlation coefficient between the two over the same period is as high as... 0.957 For example, 2018/19 This year, affected by severe weather, global wheat production has fallen to... 7.3 100 million tons—a new low in nearly five years at the time, with a reduction rate as high as... 3051.8 Ten thousand tons, but that year FSI Consumption only decreased. 2.6 Ten thousand tons, yet feed consumption has decreased. 820 Ten thousand tons, accounting for the year's reduction in production. 26.9% The remainder is adjusted through increases or decreases in inventory.

2. Quality fluctuations

Wheat is a living organism, the whole During the growth period The climate conditions not only affect yield but also influence wheat quality, thereby impacting the relative proportions and price differentials between feed wheat and milling wheat. For example, U.S. soft white winter wheat, which is used to make delicate cakes and cookies for Asian buyers, typically ends up being fed to cattle once drought conditions cause the grains to wither and the protein content to rise. Generally speaking, the higher the proportion of feed wheat, the lower its price and the greater its advantage for animal feed, which in turn leads to increased feed usage. In major global wheat-producing countries such as Australia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan, the share of feed wheat in annual production fluctuates considerably from year to year. Take Ukraine as an example; at its peak, the proportion was 70% Around, when it's low, the proportion is only... 30% Around, in a normal year. 50% Left and right.

2. Price comparison relationship

Corn is the king of energy feeds, and globally, corn essentially serves as the benchmark for pricing other energy feeds. Compared to corn, wheat has an advantage in protein content but a disadvantage in terms of energy value. However, as long as the price ratio between the two is appropriate, there are no technical barriers to wheat replacing corn in feed applications. For example: After the wheat harvest in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, if there’s a shortage and price increase for corn, the wheat that’s harvested first and put on the market is often used extensively as animal feed. Among the three major categories of wheat in the United States—soft red winter, hard red winter, and hard red spring— Soft red winter wheat is typically used to produce flour for making cookies. The price is relatively low, The price of lower-grade soft red winter wheat sometimes drops to a level where it becomes more economically advantageous for feed use than corn. ， In most years, most of the United States Feed wheat all From soft red winter wheat As for hard red winter wheat, which has a relatively high price, it can also enter the feed sector if its price is reasonably competitive—for example, in 2019. Year 7 In the current month, U.S. corn prices have risen, and large quantities of hard red winter wheat from Kansas have been diverted to the feed sector. According to Kansas, U.S. Wind River Grain Company Consultant Charlie Sauerwein Estimates suggest that when the premium of wheat futures relative to corn futures approaches... 60 Cent / Pu ( Equivalent to 22 U.S. dollar / ton When that happens, cattle ranches in West Texas will consider using wheat as a feed option.

(3) Global wheat feed-use regions are relatively concentrated.

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture 2024 Year 11 The monthly global wheat supply and demand balance report, 2020/21 ~2024/25 Annually, the global average feed use of wheat is 1.57 hundred million tons, with the average feed consumption in the European Union, China, and Russia being: 4470 Ten thousand tons, 3660 Ten thousand tons and 1730 Ten thousand tons, with respective shares of 28.5% ， 23.3% and 11% , total share 62.8% These three major wheat-consuming countries or regions are all major global producers of wheat, and the wheat they use for feed purposes is almost entirely sourced from their own domestic production. In Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and East Asia—including Japan and South Korea—wheat and corn yields are very low, or even nonexistent. Consequently, these countries determine whether to procure feed-grade wheat based on the relative price ratios between international feed-grade wheat and corn. Recently... 5 The annual average feed consumption is as follows: 871.6 Ten thousand tons, 549.9 Ten thousand tons and 238.8 Ten thousand tons, with respective shares of 5.6% 、 3.5% and 1.5% , total share 10.6% In addition, the United Kingdom is also a region or country with relatively large feed consumption. 679.3 Ten thousand tons, India 655 Ten thousand tons, Australia 440 Ten thousand tons, Ukraine 262 Ten thousand tons, United States 246.2 Ten thousand tons, Kazakhstan 182 Ten thousand tons, Pakistan 160 Ten thousand tons, Belarus 155 Ten thousand tons, Uzbekistan 142 Ten thousand tons, Egypt 126 Ten thousand tons, total 3047.5 Ten thousand tons, share: 19.4% Overall, globally, wheat used for animal feed is primarily sourced from domestic production, and international trade in feed wheat is relatively small, with annual trade volumes generally around... 2000 Around 10,000 tons.

Three, Global wheat For industrial use Quantity and industrial chain

The main component of wheat is carbohydrates. Wheat can be processed into industrial products such as gluten powder, starch, glucose, and alcohol. However, since wheat is one of the world’s two major staple foods, global wheat production is approximately... 67% For consumption, 20% For feed use, 7% For breeding purposes, only 6% For industrial use, generally... 4500 Around 10,000 tons. The largest industrial chain for global wheat usage is gluten powder. + Wheat starch, alcohol (fuel ethanol), or syrup—operating models differ slightly between domestic and international markets. In China, gluten powder plants typically purchase raw materials externally and then process them into finished products, generally within... 60 Powder ~75 The main reason for the popularity of wheat flour is its relatively high protein content and lower price. In contrast, gluten flour from the front-end process offers higher profit margins, which can help reduce the processing costs of wheat gluten and alleviate pressure on wheat supplies. Abroad, most wheat gluten mills directly extract gluten flour after grinding wheat. As for the wheat starch remaining after gluten extraction, both domestic and international practices are largely similar: it’s either sold directly or further processed into alcohol or syrup.

(1) Wheat gluten powder

There is no consensus on the global production of wheat gluten; according to expert estimates, it generally ranges around... 130 Around 10,000 tons, of which China's wheat gluten powder production is... 45 Around 10,000 tons—abroad, in... 85 Around 10,000 tons. In China, gluten powder is processed from high-protein back-end flour; the extraction rate from back-end flour to gluten powder is... 7:1 Left and right, according to 75% Estimation of flour yield: The amount of wheat used for gluten powder processing domestically is roughly... 400 Ten thousand tons—plus other industrial uses such as wheat for brewing—mean that domestic industrial wheat consumption stands at... 1150 Around 10,000 tons. Abroad, wheat flour is mostly directly processed into gluten powder, according to... 9:1 the extraction rate and 75% Estimated flour yield, roughly consumed 1000 Ten thousand tons of wheat. From a corporate perspective, in most years, the world’s largest gluten powder processing plant is located in New South Wales, Australia. Manildra Under the group's umbrella Shoalhaven Starches The factory, which simultaneously produces wheat gluten and alcohol, has an annual wheat gluten production capacity of up to... 6 Around 10,000 tons. In addition, other large-scale processing plants for gluten or wheat starch abroad include one in Hungary. Viresol The company, Cargill, is located in Germany. Krefeld the factory, the United States Amber Wave Company, Brazilian Renewable Energy Company Be8 Wait; furthermore, Kazakhstan plans to build a facility with an annual processing capacity of... 100 Wheat gluten from 10,000 tons of wheat + Syrup processing plant, Russia DonBioTech The factory uses "wheat gluten powder." + The “lysine” product portfolio.

(2) Alcohol

According to the U.S. Renewable Fuels Association ( Renewable Fuels Association ) issued by the 2024 Annual Alcohol Industry Outlook 2024 Ethanol Industry Outlook ) Report, 2023 Global fuel ethanol production reached... 295 Hundred million gallons (roughly equivalent to) 8810 10,000 tons), with the United States accounting for... 53% The ingredients are almost entirely corn (corn accounts for...). 98% , sorghum accounts for 1% , cellulose accounts for 1% ); Brazil's share 28% The raw materials are almost entirely sugarcane. 78.5% ) and corn ( 21.5% ). The EU and Canada account for, respectively, 5% and 2% are the two major countries or regions globally that use wheat to produce fuel ethanol, and they are also the world’s primary wheat-producing areas. According to... European Biofuels Industry Association ( European Biomass Industry Association ) The report shows that in the European Union, Biofuel Made from wheat (390 Ten thousand tons ) Corn (410 Ten thousand tons ) Beet (1210 Ten thousand tons ) barley (40 Ten thousand tons ) And rye (40 Ten thousand tons ) Production. According to Navius Research The company’s released “ 2023 Annual Canadian Biofuels》（《 Biofuels in Canada 2023 》) Report: Canada's annual fuel ethanol consumption has consistently been... 30 Around 100 million, roughly equivalent to 240 Ten thousand tons—renewable fuels made from wheat are roughly... 4 Around 100 million, roughly equivalent to 32 Ten thousand tons—the annual wheat consumption is approximately... 100 10,000 tons; by comparison, the share of renewable fuels derived from corn exceeds 80% It holds an absolute dominant position. As the world’s second-largest producer of fuel ethanol, Brazil has already built two fuel ethanol plants that use wheat as their primary raw material; both plants are located in Rio Grande do Sul, the main wheat-producing region in Brazil.

IV. Analysis Conclusions

Wheat is a globally consumed grain that is essential to the daily lives of people around the world, drawing close attention from governments, citizens, and society at large. In the overall consumption pattern of wheat, food use dominates and shows a growing trend, with the main growth areas concentrated in regions such as Southeast Asia and Africa—areas characterized by rapid population growth, robust economic development, or historically low consumption levels. Influenced by dietary diversification, consumption in developed countries is notably lower than in developing countries. Feed use exhibits significant fluctuations. Whether viewed from the perspectives of standards, trade, or food consumption, international feed wheat has relatively well-defined standards; however, the distinction between food-grade and feed-grade wheat is not absolute. Overall, global feed wheat consumption has been increasing in a volatile manner, yet it experiences considerable year-to-year variation due to factors such as production levels, grain quality, and relative price comparisons. Industrial use remains relatively limited and involves a more fragmented supply chain, primarily involving... Wheat gluten powder + The primary components are wheat starch, alcohol, and syrup. After separating the protein from the starch, each is processed separately to extend the supply chain. Domestically, the main approach involves purchasing pre-processed flour; internationally, the focus is on extracting the components in their entirety after grinding the wheat. Starch is also primarily used for processing fuel ethanol. Overall, the global pattern of wheat consumption remains relatively stable, characterized by "primarily for food use, with animal feed as a secondary application."

(See the original article in “China & Foreign Food”) 2025 Year No. 1 Issue Author: National Grain and Oil Information Center, Li Shengjun)